For the first time in over two and a half years, Wrexham fans are getting to grips with an unfamiliar sensation: concern.

We actually have an issue to worry us, after an unprecedented spell of blissful excellence.  We’ve started losing away games.

In fact, we’ve actually been comfortably second best in a number of away matched this season, but before analysing the matter, let’s keep some perspective.

This is an excellent side which is in the title race for a reason. I deliberately used the words “concern” and “worry”, because our away form hasn’t become anything worse than that. It’s when we come up against teams who play in a certain way that we have issues.

It’s not that we can’t get results away from home. We’ve put in some excellent performances in many of our most difficult fixtures.

Beating Shrewsbury in the FA Cup was a major achievement, a win at the ground of a team in the division above us, and it was only 4 away games ago.

In the prior round we went to a Mansfield team who simply weren’t losing matches and came away with a win. We’d already drawn there in the league, too.

And when we travelled to our great modern rivals, Notts County, the 2-0 scoreline reflected the control we’d enjoyed throughout the match. We drew at Barrow too, in a game we ought to have won.

Setting aside the remarkable 5-0 loss at Stockport, which owed a great deal to the quality of their on-loan forwards, we’ve looked good away to the strongest sides in the division.

The issue has come when we’ve faced teams from lower down the table.

Rather than try to take us on in a game of football, they want to turn it into a battle. They know that if they let us play and try to match us, they’ll probably be blown away, but if they can restrict our space and make it a trial of strength, they might be able to knock us off our stride. As more teams have found success doing so, others plan to adopt the same approach.

I was fascinated to hear Phil Parkinson’s post-match thoughts, as his comments on how to turn this around completely matched how I think we can resolve the issue.

We have so many technical players that we should be able to pass through the press, thus exposing our opponents’ defence. Parkinson wants is to do that, so It’s a case of ensuring the players have the confidence in themselves and their team mates to pass the ball around in restricted spaces, and the patience to do so until an opening is created for us to exploit.

Midfielders of the quality of George Evans, Elliot Lee and Andy Cannon are surely capable of doing exactly that.

We need to improve our results in away games to avoid putting pressure on our home form. It’s wonderful to have such magnificent form at the Stok Cae Ras, but it should be the icing on the cake which secures the title. Instead, there’s a danger that our home results will be put under pressure: if our away form continues in this vein, outstanding home form will become a necessity, not a bonus.

We travel to Sutton next Tuesday. Cut adrift from the teams above them, they appear destined to be relegated. It’s the sort of game which should be a routine win for a title-chasing team, but Sutton are a direct, long-ball team who gave us problems at the Stok Cae Ras and naturally play the sort of football which has troubled us this season. It didn’t stand out as a crucial game when the fixtures were released, but it now takes on great importance.

The team need to show that they are able to take Parkinson’s directions on board and play their natural game rather than be buffeted by a physical team. It would send an important message out to our upcoming opponents that getting in our faces isn’t the silver bullet they think it is, and they will have to revise their plans when we come to town.

3 responses to “Keep Calm and Carry On Passing”

  1. Mark,

    I love your sense of humor and commentary. I have become addicted to Wrexham–first soccer team I ever followed. I urge you to consider the following to help lift team and fan morale.

    Any time you make significant lineup changes in soccer or basketball, it takes a few games for players to figure out how to best play as a team. McLean, Evans and Fletcher all needed time. Hayden and Tunnicliffe haven’t played with our transfers, O’Connor was out and Fletcher is coming back from injury and didn’t start and the new transfers have no experience with the team. I think it is only reasonable to expect far better play in 2-3 matches and another lift once O’Connor returns.

    You may know the old Mark Twain quote about “Lies, damned lies, and statistics”, and the statistic about away form is one of those. Should Wrexham do better against the top or the bottom of the table? We’ve played the bottom at home and the top away. A comment on Sutcliffe’s article on Wrexham’s record to home vs. away pointed out that this is a case of confusing correlation and causation. When the commenter posted a couple of weeks ago, “Of remaining matches against the top 10 sides in the table, only 3 will be played away against #4 Crewe, #7 MK Dons and #8 Gillingham,” and sour home record was built against weaker teams than our home record.

    But Salford and Newport aren’t top of table–who is easier to beat, teams in good form or poor form. Over the last 6 matches, Newport has the most points, and over the last 5 Salford with their new manager is 2nd. https://footystats.org/england/efl-league-two/form-table.

    Are we better after Mullin had recovered from his rib injury and after McLean, Evans and Okonkwo had joined and all started at least two matches or before those events with Mullin out and Foster on his way to retiring? Well https://www.chad.co.uk/sport/football/league-two-form-guide-shows-best-and-worst-teams-in-the-division-over-last-three-months-and-where-mansfield-town-wrexham-stockport-county-swindon-town-grimsby-town-and-walsall-rank-4495681 Up until the recent two losses against hot teams, we had the best 12 week record.

    Do we do better when Evans, O’Connor and Cannon are in the starting 11 and we remain full strength for the match, or when they are missing due to injury or red cards and/or w play much of a match a man down. Boyle obviously helped Newport’s cause with his red card.

    Finally, I was happy to see Dalby finally score on his 21st shot. However, his goals/90 for this season is below Forde, Boyle and Mendy and barely above Hayden! Fletcher leads the squad with 1.21. On Goals + Assists per 90, he is better, but between Lee and Mendy. Palmer’s goals/90 was 0.73 two years ago, 0.47 last year, and only 0.34 this year. Mullin + Fletcher get us 1.96 goals + assists per 90. Mullin + Dalby get us 1.27, and with Palmer only 1.23. Do we do better after Fletcher joined and was able to play significant minutes or when he hadn’t joined or is injured?

    Good news, assuming Marriott scores at a higher rate in L2 with us than he has lately in L1 and/or Fletcher returns to form, we should see more away wins vs. weaker opposition. Bad news, Mansfield, Stockport and most of the top teams have yet to play at the Racecourse, and the best teams over the last 10 have been MK Dons (away match to be played), Harrogate and Tranmere! The latter two are also coming to the Racecourse. It looks to me like we will have more of a challenge at home, but given that we need 1 draw from two matches in hand to pass Barrow, and a win from one match in hand to pass Mansfield, I’m at a loss as to how fans who stuck by Wrexham through so much difficulty are getting weak kneed now! Compare our situation to Notts or to Stockport last year. Two league losses against two of the hottest teams, one of them with us playing a man down most of the match and the other missing Fletcher and O’Connor warrants the realization that we aren’t as far above most of L2 as we were above most of the National League last year.

    Blackburn played their best players with the desperation of team in financial straights who needs every penny of every FA Cup match. Coventry and Sheffield in the first match started a fair number of reserves–no source of concern other than a dose of reality that to be top of L1 or bottom of Championship, we need faster, bigger players–and younger in many cases they are in the growing and not the slowing stages of their careers.

    Keep up the enjoyable commentary!

    Best,

    Gary

  2. An apparent incongruity between the way Stockport humbled us (with quality on-loan forwards), yet our demise is due to poor teams beating us by deplying low quality football?

  3. Mark, Love your work and game commentary. This more meant for your FYI than a blog comment.

    The 6 match (and 4 match) form table explains a lot of what has been going on:
    https://www.soccerstats.com/formtable.asp?league=england4

    We are 12th, Walsall 1st, Newport 3rd, Bradford 5th. Stockport 16th, Barrow & Notts 22& 23! Mansfield and Crewe are the only sides looking good on the table and the form table. Injuries, transfers and manager changes have made 2024 a different season from the first half. This league has big enough budgets for a good first 11, but not for reserves on par with a team’s best players. Forest Green and MKD are 7th and 8th on the 4 match table.

    You correctly wrote “ Midfielders of the quality of George Evans…” Now sort the playing time table of Wrexham players by +/- and then by +/- per 90: https://fbref.com/en/squads/dad7970b/2023-2024/c16/Wrexham-Stats-League-Two

    Evans and O’Connor are 2nd & 4th. Any news on their likely return? That stat partially reflects who you play with, and joining the starting lineup when Okonkwo did really helps. However, since their injuries, we’ve seemed out of sorts. Lineup changes always take time, so I hope things will improve as Young, Bolton and Marriott sync up with the rest of the starters.

    On the per 90 table Forde leads, but those two are 3rd & 6th. Now go to Miscellaneous and sort by interceptions/90. Hayden leads but has oddly been left out until lately, Evans is up there, and O’Connor has a good balance of interceptions and tackles won. Good news is that Bolton’s tackles won per 90 is almost double Cannon’s—though some of that is coming on at the end of games against tired opponents. He was a tackle and interception beast at Luton.

    Unfortunately we played the best teams of the first half away, and now we get the teams with best form away.

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